Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 30¢ means the market is pricing in a 30.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,482) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($21,923) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1¢ | $9,930,848 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,841,819 |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,626,561 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-03, 127 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 30¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 70¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 30¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 30.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,482 in total traded volume and $21,923 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.