Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?
What resolves this contract
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count)
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 6¢ means the market is pricing in a 6.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,879) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($9,909) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | 8¢ | $998,432 |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | 1¢ | $992,330 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 73¢ | $991,683 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count)
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-06-16. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 6¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 6¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 6.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,879 in total traded volume and $9,909 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.