politics

Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-11-07 Volume$9,888 Open Interest$2,970
YES
42¢
Implied probability: 42.5%
NO
57¢
Implied probability: 57.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 42¢ · High 42¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
42¢
NO Price
57¢
Total Volume
$9,888
Open Interest
$2,970
Expiration
2026-11-07
Days Left
58
About this market

What resolves this contract

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 42¢ means the market is pricing in a 42.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,888) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,970) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-11-07, 58 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 42¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 57¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 42¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 42.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,888 in total traded volume and $2,970 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-10. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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