politics

Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-06-30 Volume$9,594 Open Interest$11,699
YES
91¢
Implied probability: 91.5%
NO
Implied probability: 8.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 91¢ · High 91¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
91¢
NO Price
Total Volume
$9,594
Open Interest
$11,699
Expiration
2027-06-30
Days Left
288
About this market

What resolves this contract

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this mark

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 91¢ means the market is pricing in a 91.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,594) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,699) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this mark

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-06-30, 288 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 91¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 8¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 91¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 91.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,594 in total traded volume and $11,699 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-15. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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