politics

Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-10-04 Volume$9,610 Open Interest$14,002
YES
18¢
Implied probability: 18.0%
NO
82¢
Implied probability: 82.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 18¢ · High 18¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account → Gemini · Trade $100, get $20 Prediction markets on a regulated US crypto exchange. Gemini is the NYDFS-regulated exchange offering prediction markets alongside spot crypto. New users who trade $100 get $20. Affiliate link; we may earn a commission at no cost to you. Claim the offer →
YES Price
18¢
NO Price
82¢
Total Volume
$9,610
Open Interest
$14,002
Expiration
2026-10-04
Days Left
54
About this market

What resolves this contract

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offi

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 18¢ means the market is pricing in a 18.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,610) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,002) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? $9,924,929
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $9,703,515
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? $9,528,374
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offi

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 54 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 18¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 82¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 18¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 18.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,610 in total traded volume and $14,002 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-11. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.