economy

Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$9,974 Open Interest$9,555
YES
Implied probability: 3.6%
NO
96¢
Implied probability: 96.4%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 3¢ · High 3¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
96¢
Total Volume
$9,974
Open Interest
$9,555
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
167
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 3.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,974) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($9,555) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun. Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 167 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.6% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,974 in total traded volume and $9,555 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-07-17. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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