Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 65¢ means the market is pricing in a 65.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,528) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($971) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 20¢ | $999,176 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | 6¢ | $997,443 |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $992,252 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-31, 25 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 65¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 34¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 65¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 65.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,528 in total traded volume and $971 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.