Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitl
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 45¢ means the market is pricing in a 45.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,413) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($25,199) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1¢ | $999,436 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 37¢ | $959,802 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? | 7¢ | $9,951 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitl
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 240 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 45¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 54¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 45¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 45.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,413 in total traded volume and $25,199 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.