Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
What resolves this contract
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces a qualifying extension of access to "Claude Fable 5" beyond July 19, 2026, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usa
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 45¢ means the market is pricing in a 45.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,493) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($8,504) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 1¢ | $9,748,660 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $986,981 |
| Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? | 1¢ | $982,036 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces a qualifying extension of access to "Claude Fable 5" beyond July 19, 2026, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usa
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-19, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 45¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 54¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 45¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 45.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,493 in total traded volume and $8,504 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.