Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 24¢ means the market is pricing in a 24.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,872) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,681) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | 1¢ | $992,209 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 73¢ | $991,331 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | 6¢ | $983,457 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 200 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 24¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 76¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 24¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 24.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,872 in total traded volume and $2,681 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.