economy

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2028-01-01 Volume$9,767 Open Interest$4,781
YES
69¢
Implied probability: 69.5%
NO
30¢
Implied probability: 30.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 69¢ · High 69¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account → Gemini · Trade $100, get $20 Prediction markets on a regulated US crypto exchange. Gemini is the NYDFS-regulated exchange offering prediction markets alongside spot crypto. New users who trade $100 get $20. Affiliate link; we may earn a commission at no cost to you. Claim the offer →
YES Price
69¢
NO Price
30¢
Total Volume
$9,767
Open Interest
$4,781
Expiration
2028-01-01
Days Left
478
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will no

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 69¢ means the market is pricing in a 69.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,767) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,781) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? $982,039
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? $958,826
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? $99,671
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will no

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 478 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 69¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 31¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 69¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 69.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,767 in total traded volume and $4,781 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-10. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.