Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
What resolves this contract
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 82¢ means the market is pricing in a 82.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,580) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($6,510) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 27¢ | $9,910,057 |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,882,493 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | 95¢ | $999,103 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 162 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 82¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 18¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 82¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 82.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,580 in total traded volume and $6,510 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.