Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
What resolves this contract
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 36¢ means the market is pricing in a 36.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,174) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($34,169) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | 1¢ | $995,027 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 6¢ | $977,810 |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $976,205 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-06, 73 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 36¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 64¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 36¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 36.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,174 in total traded volume and $34,169 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.