Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?
What resolves this contract
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid v
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 18¢ means the market is pricing in a 18.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,714) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($22,621) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,906,393 |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | 2¢ | $986,412 |
| Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1¢ | $96,157 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid v
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-04, 5 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 18¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 82¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 18¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 18.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,714 in total traded volume and $22,621 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.