Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 86¢ means the market is pricing in a 86.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,262) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($72,836) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | 1¢ | $992,257 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 1¢ | $981,875 |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | 1¢ | $973,740 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-31, 28 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 86¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 14¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 86¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 86.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,262 in total traded volume and $72,836 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.