Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible - i.e., if m
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 27¢ means the market is pricing in a 27.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,820) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($7,474) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 3¢ | $988,239 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 28¢ | $978,512 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 17¢ | $977,358 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible - i.e., if m
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 160 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 27¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 72¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 27¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 27.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,820 in total traded volume and $7,474 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.