U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation - such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum - addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verificati
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 6¢ means the market is pricing in a 6.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,539) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($153) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 1¢ | $991,183 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | 1¢ | $954,631 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 7¢ | $99,581 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation - such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum - addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verificati
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 139 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 6¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 6¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 6.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,539 in total traded volume and $153 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.