US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is compl
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 85¢ means the market is pricing in a 85.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($973,338) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($44,658) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | 13¢ | $98,744 |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026? | 16¢ | $96,704 |
| Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 1¢ | $9,931 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is compl
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-14, 9 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 85¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 15¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 85¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 85.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $973,338 in total traded volume and $44,658 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.