US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person dipl
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 44¢ means the market is pricing in a 44.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,551) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($54,377) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 1¢ | $972,721 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 8¢ | $98,976 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | 9¢ | $96,518 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person dipl
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-31, 42 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 44¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 56¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 44¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 44.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,551 in total traded volume and $54,377 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.