US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JC
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 16¢ means the market is pricing in a 16.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($986,898) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($36,771) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | 1¢ | $999,948 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | 3¢ | $963,547 |
| Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? | 1¢ | $98,267 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JC
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-31, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 16¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 84¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 16¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 16.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $986,898 in total traded volume and $36,771 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.