world

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-08-20 Volume$964,816 Open Interest$64,803
YES
58¢
Implied probability: 58.5%
NO
41¢
Implied probability: 41.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 58¢ · High 58¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
58¢
NO Price
41¢
Total Volume
$964,816
Open Interest
$64,803
Expiration
2026-08-20
Days Left
17
About this market

What resolves this contract

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent. This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounce

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 58¢ means the market is pricing in a 58.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($964,816) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($64,803) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent. This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounce

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-08-20, 17 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 58¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 42¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 58¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 58.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $964,816 in total traded volume and $64,803 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-03. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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