US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
What resolves this contract
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 37¢ means the market is pricing in a 37.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($974,584) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($32,489) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 92¢ | $959,703 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 87¢ | $957,705 |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | 65¢ | $98,804 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-07, 3 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 37¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 62¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 37¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 37.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $974,584 in total traded volume and $32,489 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.