Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previo
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 92¢ means the market is pricing in a 92.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,349) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($8,668) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 3¢ | $988,239 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 17¢ | $977,358 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 26¢ | $976,772 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previo
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-31, 7 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 92¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 7¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 92¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 92.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,349 in total traded volume and $8,668 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.