economy

SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-07-01 Volume$9,938 Open Interest$14,220
YES
92¢
Implied probability: 92.5%
NO
Implied probability: 7.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 92¢ · High 92¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account →
YES Price
92¢
NO Price
Total Volume
$9,938
Open Interest
$14,220
Expiration
2026-07-01
Days Left
40
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest da

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 92¢ means the market is pricing in a 92.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,938) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,220) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? $9,851,314
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? $998,115
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? $990,596
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest da

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-07-01, 40 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 92¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 7¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 92¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 92.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,938 in total traded volume and $14,220 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-05-22. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.