economy

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-12-31 Volume$9,631 Open Interest$3,446
YES
89¢
Implied probability: 89.0%
NO
11¢
Implied probability: 11.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 89¢ · High 89¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
89¢
NO Price
11¢
Total Volume
$9,631
Open Interest
$3,446
Expiration
2027-12-31
Days Left
553
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does n

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 89¢ means the market is pricing in a 89.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,631) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,446) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does n

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-12-31, 553 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 89¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 11¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 89¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 89.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,631 in total traded volume and $3,446 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-26. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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