Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated inte
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 3¢ means the market is pricing in a 3.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,919) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,407) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 1¢ | $979,240 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 14¢ | $978,635 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | 60¢ | $962,317 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated inte
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2099-12-31, 26785 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.4% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,919 in total traded volume and $1,407 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.