Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 48¢ means the market is pricing in a 48.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($983,208) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($104,970) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 6¢ | $9,930,535 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | 1¢ | $9,657,153 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $990,975 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 210 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 48¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 52¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 48¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 48.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $983,208 in total traded volume and $104,970 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.