economy

Relay FDV above $800M one day after launch?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2028-01-01 Volume$976 Open Interest$11,515
YES
15¢
Implied probability: 15.5%
NO
84¢
Implied probability: 84.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 15¢ · High 15¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
15¢
NO Price
84¢
Total Volume
$976
Open Interest
$11,515
Expiration
2028-01-01
Days Left
622
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 15¢ means the market is pricing in a 15.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($976) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,515) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 622 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 15¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 84¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 15¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 15.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $976 in total traded volume and $11,515 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-19. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.