NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified t
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,890) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,365) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $987,072 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? | 1¢ | $982,974 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 3¢ | $982,343 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=new-york. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure in the "New York City Region" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified t
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-18. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,890 in total traded volume and $2,365 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.