Nothing Ever Happens: August
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal - Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire - Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law - Fed emergency rate cut - Iran targets Ukraine - Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 85¢ means the market is pricing in a 85.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,889) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($15,906) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 20¢ | $999,176 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | 6¢ | $997,526 |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $992,435 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal - Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire - Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law - Fed emergency rate cut - Iran targets Ukraine - Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-31, 25 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 85¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 15¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 85¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 85.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,889 in total traded volume and $15,906 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.