economy

Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-30 Volume$9,865 Open Interest$3,873
YES
27¢
Implied probability: 27.5%
NO
72¢
Implied probability: 72.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 27¢ · High 38¢ · Δ -11.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account →
YES Price
27¢
NO Price
72¢
Total Volume
$9,865
Open Interest
$3,873
Expiration
2026-09-30
Days Left
99
About this market

What resolves this contract

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rol

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 27¢ means the market is pricing in a 27.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,865) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,873) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? 76¢ $999,378
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? $981,063
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? $976,256
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rol

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 99 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 27¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 72¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 27¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 27.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,865 in total traded volume and $3,873 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-23. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.