Next Kimi K model released by September 30, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify. Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be lau
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 90¢ means the market is pricing in a 90.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,775) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($771) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 7¢ | $982,039 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | 8¢ | $958,826 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $99,671 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify. Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be lau
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-01, 21 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 90¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 10¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 90¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 90.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,775 in total traded volume and $771 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.