Will the high temp in NYC be <80° on Aug 3, 2026: 79° or below
The NOAA ensemble forecast is compared to the market's implied probability. A positive edge means the model sees the event as more likely than the market does. Historical data; not investment advice.
What resolves this contract
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for August 03, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 80°, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 38¢ means the market is pricing in a 38.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($76,042) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($30,977) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the high temp in LA be >83° on Aug 3, 2026: 84° or above | 1¢ | $127,654 |
| Will the high temp in LA be 78-79° on Aug 3, 2026: 78° to 79° | 99¢ | $73,581 |
| Will the high temp in LA be 80-81° on Aug 3, 2026: 80° to 81° | 1¢ | $68,780 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for August 03, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 80°, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-04, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 38¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 62¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 38¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 38.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $76,042 in total traded volume and $30,977 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.
What does the NOAA model say?
The NOAA weather model ensemble estimates a 90.5% probability of YES. The market is pricing in 38.0%. The gap (41.5pp) is the model's implied edge , positive means the model thinks YES is more likely than the market does. This is a research signal, not trading advice.