Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° on Sep 3, 2026: 94° to 95°
The NOAA ensemble forecast is compared to the market's implied probability. A positive edge means the model sees the event as more likely than the market does. Historical data; not investment advice.
What resolves this contract
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Sep 3, 2026, is between 94-95° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 17¢ means the market is pricing in a 17.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($174) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($162) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >78° on Sep 2, 2026: 79° or above | 6¢ | $45,899 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 75-76° on Sep 2, 2026: 75° to 76° | 33¢ | $44,055 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Sep 2, 2026: 73° to 74° | 1¢ | $37,646 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Sep 3, 2026, is between 94-95° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-04, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 17¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 83¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 17¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 17.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $174 in total traded volume and $162 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.
What does the NOAA model say?
The NOAA weather model ensemble estimates a 50.0% probability of YES. The market is pricing in 17.0%. The gap (43.0pp) is the model's implied edge: positive means the model thinks YES is more likely than the market does. This is a research signal, not trading advice.