Will the high temp in Chicago be 82-83° on May 4, 2026: 82° to 83°
What resolves this contract
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for May 04, 2026, is between 82-83° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 13¢ means the market is pricing in a 13.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($183) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($171) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be <59° on May 3, 2026: 58° or below | 23¢ | $25,079 |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 61-62° on May 3, 2026: 61° to 62° | 11¢ | $19,331 |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be <64° on May 3, 2026: 63° or below | 4¢ | $18,294 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for May 04, 2026, is between 82-83° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-05, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 13¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 87¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 13¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 13.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $183 in total traded volume and $171 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.