Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An an
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 4.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,657) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($258,840) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | 12¢ | $99,288 |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $98,613 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | 13¢ | $98,093 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An an
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 57 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,657 in total traded volume and $258,840 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.