Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other co
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 59¢ means the market is pricing in a 59.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,210) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($42,714) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 1¢ | $972,227 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 9¢ | $98,918 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | 17¢ | $97,928 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other co
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-31, 12 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 59¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 40¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 59¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 59.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,210 in total traded volume and $42,714 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.