Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this mark
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 12¢ means the market is pricing in a 12.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,660) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($43,276) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 98¢ | $984,936 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 4¢ | $979,843 |
| Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 1¢ | $975,853 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this mark
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-31, 53 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 12¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 88¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 12¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 12.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,660 in total traded volume and $43,276 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.