Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
What resolves this contract
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 90¢ means the market is pricing in a 90.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,984) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($15,620) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | 6¢ | $994,488 |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 23¢ | $98,142 |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 25¢ | $98,037 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-27, 79 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 90¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 9¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 90¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 90.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,984 in total traded volume and $15,620 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.