Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States ag
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 99¢ means the market is pricing in a 99.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,775,095) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,365,862) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 14¢ | $9,842,326 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 26¢ | $974,498 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | 1¢ | $959,682 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States ag
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-15, 22 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 99¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 1¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 99¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 99.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,775,095 in total traded volume and $2,365,862 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.