Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commerc
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 25¢ means the market is pricing in a 25.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($970,879) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($31,531) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | 7¢ | $983,362 |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 1¢ | $969,471 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | 11¢ | $99,758 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commerc
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-31, 14 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 25¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 74¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 25¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 25.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $970,879 in total traded volume and $31,531 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.