Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
What resolves this contract
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is ma
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 61¢ means the market is pricing in a 61.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,134) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($48,679) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 1¢ | $967,668 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 8¢ | $98,332 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | 12¢ | $97,309 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is ma
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-31, 109 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 61¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 39¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 61¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 61.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,134 in total traded volume and $48,679 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.