Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 7?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 36¢ means the market is pricing in a 36.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,837) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($877) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be <76° on Sep 6, 2026: 75° or below | 31¢ | $74,455 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 78-79° on Sep 6, 2026: 78° to 79° | 14¢ | $66,526 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° on Sep 6, 2026: 76° to 77° | 55¢ | $61,450 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 13¢ | $978,692 |
| Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Cut in the next three decisions (Jun-Jul-Sep)? | 1¢ | $99,641 |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $99,475 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-07, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 36¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 64¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 36¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 36.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,837 in total traded volume and $877 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.