Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 10?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In th
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 99¢ means the market is pricing in a 99.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,598) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,624) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >90° on Sep 10, 2026: 91° or above | 94¢ | $35,164 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 87-88° on Sep 10, 2026: 87° to 88° | 1¢ | $12,113 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 89-90° on Sep 10, 2026: 89° to 90° | 9¢ | $10,791 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 6¢ | $982,208 |
| Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $959,846 |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $99,475 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In th
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-10. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 99¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 1¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 99¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 99.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,598 in total traded volume and $3,624 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.