economy

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 21?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-04-21 Volume$977 Open Interest$2,659
YES
17¢
Implied probability: 17.0%
NO
83¢
Implied probability: 83.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 17¢ · High 17¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account →
YES Price
17¢
NO Price
83¢
Total Volume
$977
Open Interest
$2,659
Expiration
2026-04-21
Days Left
2
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting be

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 17¢ means the market is pricing in a 17.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($977) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,659) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? $983,860
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? $980,203
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? 13¢ $977,975
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting be

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-04-21, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 17¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 83¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 17¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 17.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $977 in total traded volume and $2,659 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-19. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.