Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 55¢ means the market is pricing in a 55.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,716) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($6,104) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $994,931 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 6¢ | $977,923 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 22¢ | $972,887 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-06-29, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 55¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 45¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 55¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 55.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,716 in total traded volume and $6,104 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.