Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 4?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the l
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 13¢ means the market is pricing in a 13.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,680) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,174) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° on Sep 3, 2026: 76° to 77° | 1¢ | $519,382 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 78-79° on Sep 3, 2026: 78° to 79° | 99¢ | $172,394 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >79° on Sep 3, 2026: 80° or above | 1¢ | $110,605 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | 10¢ | $983,444 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 14¢ | $978,692 |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | 1¢ | $977,724 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the l
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-04, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 13¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 87¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 13¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 13.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,680 in total traded volume and $1,174 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.