economy

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on September 3?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-03 Volume$9,595 Open Interest$2,366
YES
Implied probability: 2.1%
NO
97¢
Implied probability: 98.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 2¢ · High 2¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
97¢
Total Volume
$9,595
Open Interest
$2,366
Expiration
2026-09-03
Days Left
0
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest br

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 2.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,595) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,366) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest br

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-03. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 2¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 98¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 2¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 2.1% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,595 in total traded volume and $2,366 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-03. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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