economy

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-06-11 Volume$9,765 Open Interest$981
YES
31¢
Implied probability: 31.5%
NO
68¢
Implied probability: 68.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 31¢ · High 31¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account →
YES Price
31¢
NO Price
68¢
Total Volume
$9,765
Open Interest
$981
Expiration
2026-06-11
Days Left
0
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decima

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 31¢ means the market is pricing in a 31.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,765) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($981) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? $997,266
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? $996,737
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? $989,300
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decima

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-06-11. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 31¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 68¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 31¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 31.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,765 in total traded volume and $981 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-11. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.