Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decima
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 31¢ means the market is pricing in a 31.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,765) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($981) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | 3¢ | $997,266 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1¢ | $996,737 |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $989,300 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decima
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-06-11. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 31¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 68¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 31¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 31.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,765 in total traded volume and $981 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.