Grok 4.4 released by July 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or simi
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 87¢ means the market is pricing in a 87.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,634) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,679) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | 96¢ | $995,474 |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria? | 15¢ | $988,810 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | 54¢ | $981,846 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or simi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-31, 29 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 87¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 13¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 87¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 87.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,634 in total traded volume and $2,679 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.